Market Recap
SPY carved out a messy doji week, closing flat at 671 after gapping up Monday on oil de-escalation only to bleed tech 3% by Friday. QQQ shed 1.2% amid Adobe's -8% crater and Meta's -4% stumble, while semis flashed mixed signals—MU +5%, AVGO -4%. Day-by-day: Mon rip +1.3% on Iran ceasefire bets; Tue fade -0.8% as breadth cracked <30%; Wed neutral grind; Thu distribution day #6; Fri premarket gaps down ignored for dead-cat bounce.
Catalysts were noise: Polymarket screamed Hormuz closure at 100% odds but oil held $85. Econ tightening with claims at 213k kept Fed off-radar. Geos like Ukraine ceasefire at 2% added zero vol. Pure flow versus gamma theater.
IWM lagged hardest, -0.9%, as small caps rejected 250. Dispersion exploded to 28pts—classic regime fracture where Mag7 drags the indices while rest rots.
What Moved
Tech imploded on rotation out: ADBE -7.7% post-earnings whisper, CRM/ORCL -3% each. Semis split—MU ripped on memory bets, but AVGO/AMD bled AI fatigue. Energy flat despite HAL -3%, VLO -2% on oil stasis.
Real signal was breadth: 8MA at 0.57, <30% above 50DMA four days—dealers gamma short SPY -2.9M, unloading delta into puts. Whales dumped $13B puts vs $19B calls, but PLTR/SMCI saw $60M+ call bombs that faded fast.
Noise: Crypto BTC +1% to 71k in fear (FGI 15), irrelevant to tapes. Cross-asset IWM/SPY at 0.37 screamed concentration unwind.
What We Got Right — And Wrong
Trade caller nailed 69% winners on 36 closed calls, avg +12.8% gainers vs -62% losers—solid but PLTR/SMCI repeats torched 8/12. Best: SMCI +36% on SAM break; worst: manual IBM/AIG -100% displaced instantly. Portfolio +2.8% equal weight.
Macro engine 3/5 days directionally right in BEAR_CAUTIOUS calls, but flow sentiment whiffed 3/5 as early leads faded EOD. Breadth/dispersion aced 4/5, spotting weak internals before Thu distribution.
Regime spot-on: VOLATILE → BEAR_CAUTIOUS nailed short bias, but neutral Wed overcalled longs. Honesty: Over-reliance on whale size in repeats; displacement mechanic saved us from worse.
Volatility Check
VIX 27 term neutral, but dispersion 28pts extreme—correlation breakdown brewing. Gamma all negative (SPY -2.9M improving from -3.9M), dealers short delta but no vol pop yet. Positioning: Put prem 52% on core tickers, whales neutral but flow bearish -0.21.
Next Week’s Setup
Watch SPY 665 support—break targets 650 on dist day #7. QQQ 595 key, semis rotation if MU holds 420. Catalysts: Fed speakers Mon-Wed (no cut bets), CPI Tue (elevated 2.4%), Iran polls (Hormuz 100%).
Setups: ARM puts if SAM re-breaks 115P, CAT bears on whale reloads. Breadth <20% screams IWM shorts. Earnings: Watch BA drift post +2.5%.
If dispersion >30, fade index rallies—small caps lead cracks.
The Bottom Line
Flow overload in repeats like PLTR burned edges; tighten cooldowns. Breadth and dispersion owned the week—weight them higher. Shorts own next unless 680 clears.